By Michael Yardney December 9, 2024

A A A

84 View comments

This week’s Australian Property Market Update – Latest Data, State by State December 10th 2024

Property Market News
This week’s Australian Property Market Update – Latest Data, State by State December 10th 2024

Key takeaways

2024 has been quite the year for property.

From interest rates remaining higher for longer than most of us would have liked to strong population growth and continued supply issues, the market has thrown us both challenges and opportunities.

But overall, the markets have shown their resilience, with property values being higher in most locations around Australia compared to the beginning of the year.

However, our housing markets have been fragmented with Perth, Adelaide and Brisbane outperforming the rest of Australia.

Now our markets are slowing down and this year's spring selling season proved less successful for sellers than last year's, with overall sales volumes 4% lower than the historic average, according to CoreLogic.

This week, CoreLogic Research reports that:

*Sydney property prices fell remained flat over the last week, fell -0.3% over the last month and are 3.1% higher than they were 12 months ago.

*Melbourne property prices fell -0.2% over the last week, fell -0.4% over the last month, and are -2.6% lower compared to 12 months ago.

*Brisbane property prices increased by 0.1% over the last week, increased 0.6% over the last month and are 12% higher than they were 12 months ago.

Overall, Australian capital dwelling prices remained flat over the last month and are now 5.4% higher than they were 12 months ago.

2,597 homes were taken to auction last week, down from 2,881 a week earlier and well below the spring peak of 3,135 auctions held over the week ending October 27th.

The preliminary combined capitals auction clearance rate came in at 62.4% last week, down a full percentage point from the week prior to the be the lowest preliminary result so far this year.

This current property cycle has been driven by an undersupply of good properties relative to current demand pushing up property values and rents there was nothing to suggest there will be any significant change in the near future.

Unfortunately, the undersupply properties is going to persist for some time with all commentators agreeing that there is no way we're going to hit the housing construction targets required to meet our demand.

2024 has been quite the year for property.

From interest rates remaining higher for longer than most of us would have liked to strong population growth and continued supply issues, the market has thrown us both challenges and opportunities.

But overall, the markets have shown their resilience, with property values being higher in most locations around Australia compared to the beginning of the year.

CoreLogic estimates the combined value of residential real estate rose to $11.1 trillion at the end of November. I remember when it hit $9 trillion before the pandemic and everyone was excited.

However, our housing markets have been fragmented with Perth, Adelaide and Brisbane outperforming the rest of Australia.

On the auction front... 2,597 homes were taken to auction last week, down from 2,881 a week earlier and well below the spring peak of 3,135 auctions held over the week ending October 27th.

The preliminary combined capitals auction clearance rate came in at 62.4% last week, down a full percentage point from the week prior to the be the lowest preliminary result so far this year.

According to CoreLogic, the weaker selling conditions reflected in auction clearance rates

See Corelogic's full auction report below.

This week, CoreLogic also reports that:

Sydney property prices fell remained flat over the last week, fell -0.3% over the last month and are 3.1% higher than they were 12 months ago.
Melbourne property prices fell -0.2% over the last week, fell -0.4% over the last month, and are -2.6% lower compared to 12 months ago.

Brisbane property prices increased by 0.1% over the last week, increased 0.6% over the last month and are 12% higher than they were 12 months ago.

Overall, Australian capital dwelling prices remained flat over the last month and are now 5.4% higher than they were 12 months ago.

Clearly, the property cycle is moving on but our markets are very fragmented.

Source: CoreLogic December 9th 2024

Of course, these are "overall" figures - there is not one Sydney or Melbourne or Brisbane property market.

And various segments of each market are performing differently.

At the beginning of this cycle the upper quartile of the market lead the upswing but now the lower quartile across every capital city has recorded a stronger outcome for housing values relative to its upper quartile counterpart over the past quarter.

The following chart shows how various segments of each capital city market are performing differently with median-priced properties performing well.

To help keep you up-to-date with all that's happening in property, here is my updated weekly analysis of data and charts as of 25th November 2024 provided by SQM Research, CoreLogic, and realestate.com.au.

Current property asking prices

Property asking prices are a useful leading indicator for housing markets - giving a good indication of what's ahead.

Here is the latest data available:

Sydney

Property type	Price ($)	Weekly Change	Monthly Change %	Annual % change
All Houses	1,939,338	-5.439	-0.7%	2.7%
All Units	825,833	-3.533	-1.5%	5.1%
Combined	1,488,079	-4.666	-0.9%	3.0%

Source: SQM Research

Melbourne

Property type	Price ($)	Weekly Change	Monthly Change %	Annual % change
All Houses	1,240,673	-3.673	-0.9%	2.6%
All Units	612,502	-0.502	0.0%	2.1%
Combined	1,043,254	-2.676	-0.7%	2.3%

Source: SQM Research

Brisbane

Property type	Price ($)	Weekly Change	Monthly Change %	Annual % change
All Houses	1,189,408	-1.408	0.2%	15.8%
All Units	670,877	-3.577	0.2%	22.3%
Combined	1,059,740	-1.951	0.2%	16.7%

Source: SQM Research

Perth

Property type	Price ($)	Weekly Change	Monthly Change %	Annual % change
All Houses	1,095,385	-1.951	1.1%	25.8%
All Units	592,824	0.411	1.7%	30.1%
Combined	964,132	-1.334	1.2%	26.3%

Source: SQM Research

Adelaide

Property type	Price ($)	Weekly Change	Monthly Change %	Annual % change
All Houses	965,733	5.667	2.3%	17.9%
All Units	486,507	1.293	2.9%	10.3%
Combined	879,657	4.881	2.3%	17.1%

Source: SQM Research

Canberra

Property type	Price ($)	Weekly Change	Monthly Change %	Annual % change
All Houses	1,215,760	6.865	3.2%	0.7%
All Units	598,239	-1.014	-0.7%	0.4%
Combined	988,713	3.968	2.3%	0.2%

Source: SQM Research

Darwin

Property type	Price ($)	Weekly Change	Monthly Change %	Annual % change
All Houses	697,717	-2.317	0.8%	4.7%
All Units	385,283	1.350	0.1%	2.6%
Combined	575,093	-0.878	0.6%	4.1%

Source: SQM Research

Hobart

Property type	Price ($)	Weekly Change	Monthly Change %	Annual % change
All Houses	807,733	0.812	0.8%	1.3%
All Units	492,156	3.298	2.8%	-7.6%
Combined	759,951	1.189	1.0%	0.3%

Source: SQM Research

National

Property type	Price ($)	Weekly Change	Monthly Change %	Annual % change
All Houses	951,178	-0.971	-0.2%	7.5%
All Units	564,896	-1.441	0.4%	7.9%
Combined	868,074	-1.072	-0.1%	7.4%

Source: SQM Research

Cap City Average

Property type	Price ($)	Weekly Change	Monthly Change %	Annual % change
All Houses	1,404,333	-3.610	-0.9%	5.7%
All Units	701,764	-5.349	-0.7%	6.4%
Combined	1,196,365	-4.125	-0.8%	5.6%

Source: SQM Research

The value of property asking prices as a leading indicator for housing markets is quite significant.

In fact it's more valuable than median prices which can be quite misleading.

Let's delve into why this is the case and how it impacts the real estate market.

Early Market Sentiment Indicator: Asking prices often reflect the current sentiment of sellers in the real estate market.

If sellers are confident, they might set higher asking prices, anticipating strong demand.
Conversely, if sellers are uncertain or perceive a market downturn, they might lower their asking prices to attract buyers.
This makes asking prices a real-time indicator of market sentiment, often preceding changes in actual sales prices.
Predictive of Future Price Trends: Trends in asking prices can be predictive of where the actual property prices are headed.
For example, a consistent rise in asking prices over a period can signal an upcoming rise in transaction prices.
Impact of Economic Factors: Economic factors such as interest rates, employment rates, and broader economic health influence asking prices.
For instance, changes in the Reserve Bank of Australia's policies or shifts in the job market can quickly reflect in the asking prices, providing insights into how these factors are influencing the housing market.
Regional Variations: In a diverse market like Australia's, asking prices can also provide insights into regional disparities.
For instance, the property markets in Melbourne and Sydney might behave differently from those in Brisbane or Perth. Asking prices can give early indications of these regional trends.
Influence of Supply and Demand: Asking prices are also a response to the balance of supply and demand in the market.
In areas with limited supply and high demand, asking prices tend to be higher and vice versa.

However, it's important to note that while asking prices are a valuable indicator, they should not be used in isolation.

Other factors like actual sales prices, time on the market, auction clearance rates, and economic conditions also play crucial roles in understanding the property market dynamics.

Last weekend's auction report

Weaker selling conditions reflected in auction clearance rates

The preliminary combined capitals auction clearance rate came in at 62.4% last week, down a full percentage point from the week prior to be the lowest preliminary result so far this year.

The weak outcome for auction markets reflects weaker selling conditions as advertised stock levels rise without a commensurate lift in purchasing activity.

The result came as auction volumes wind down, with 2,597 homes taken to auction last week, down from 2,881 a week earlier and well below the spring peak of 3,135 auctions held over the week ending October 27th.

This week is set to show a further reduction, with around 2,200 homes currently scheduled for auction, reducing to around 800 next week.

1,207 auctions were held in Melbourne last week.

67.0% of the results so far have recorded a positive outcome, the highest preliminary result since the last week of October (68.5%).

923 homes went under the hammer in Sydney, down from 1,031 the week prior.

The preliminary clearance rate, at 57.5%, was the lowest of the year so far and down nearly 8 percentage points from the week prior (65.1% which was revised down to 58.2% on final numbers).

Brisbane hosted the most auctions across the smaller capitals, with 203 homes taken to market by auction.

57.6% of auctions have been reported as successful so far, up from 52.9% the previous week (which was revised down to 48.6% on final numbers).

167 auctions were held in Adelaide, roughly on par with the week prior (169), returning an early clearance rate of 61.7% (lowest so far this year).

Only 78 auctions were held in the ACT, the lowest volume in two months, returning a preliminary clearance rate of 60.8%.

Just 16 auctions were held in Perth last week, with three of the four auctions collected so far reporting a successful result.

There were three homes auctioned in Tasmania, one of which was successful.

Our rental markets

The national rental index has continued a relatively flat run of growth, rising 0.2% in November to be 5.3% higher over
the past 12 months.

This annual change in national rents was the smallest since April 2021. A year ago, rents were increasing at the annual rate of 8.1% and by more than 9% over the prior two years.